We’ll get into the Poly defense and how they’re going to try to contain Cody Fajardo and the Friars tomorrow, but today we’re going to talk about the other matchup: the Poly offense against the Servite defense.  In the first meeting between these two teams, it wasn’t much of a fight, as Poly put up just seven points, and just 141 total yards (including just 38 on the ground).

We’ve been saying all week that the biggest mistake Servite could make would be to look at film of their first game against Poly—and I think that’s true.  Poly has a different offensive line (with a different attitude and ability level), a different quarterback, a different set of running backs, and different receivers.  It’s a different unit with a different mentality, and it’s safe to say they’ll get more than 40 yards rushing on Friday (they’re averaging over 150 per-game). 

The rushing game has been given a real shot in the arm by the play of Kaelin Clay the last few weeks, but don’t be surprised if Cory Westbrook is in there and running strong this week as well.  And of course behind those guys there’s a logjam with Michael Simmons, Kameron White, etc.  Continued improvement from an offensive line that manhandled Los Al last week is the biggest key—Ryan and Wilson Edwards both played O-line last week and were phenomenal.  For Servite, their defensive line is almost more notable for who won’t be playing, as Troy Niklas (starting DT and TE) is out with a concussion according to the OC Register; and starter Kirifi Leuta-Taula, who wreaked absolute havoc in these teams’ first meeting, is still out with a broken arm.  Those injuries will likely make it a little easier for Poly to control the line of scrimmage (not easy, but easier).

The big question mark for Poly is the passing game—if the running game is going to get anything going, and if the Jackrabbits are going to score enough points to win, they’re going to need production through the air.  Consider: I mentioned last week that over or under two touchdowns has been the difference for Poly—when they score over, they average 32 points and are 5-1.  When they score two touchdowns or under, they’re averaging 10 points a game and are 1-4. 

The passing game—not the defense, and not the running game—has been the big difference.  In those low-scorers, they average 83 yards passing; in the games where they’re putting up points and winning, they’re averaging nearly twice that, with 160 yards.  All three times they’ve thrown for 200 yards, they’ve won; so, while it’s undeniable that establishing the run is critical, stretching the field will have to factor in too.

In order to do any of that, they’ll have to handle the focal point of Servite’s defense, the defensive line: even with the injuries to Niklas and Leuta, Matthew Jakubiec is still 6-7 and over 300 pounds.  Matchups in the secondary and at linebacker aren’t easy, but certainly more manageable if they can clamp down up front.