For part two of our preview, click here.
Poly vs. Bishop Amat @ Vet’s, 7pm
On paper, this one looks pretty cut and dry: it’s the bracket’s number one seed, Long Beach Poly, taking on the only at-large bid. The number one seed and the number 16 seed. After studying the Bishop Amat Lancers, I see no reason why this shouldn’t be as cut and dry on the field as it is on the stat book—granted, “Any given Friday” and all that, but consider:
Poly’s defense has allowed 71 points this season, an average of about a touchdown a game. Bishop Amat is a team struggling to find its identity offensively. They’ve started two quarterbacks throughout the season, a senior (Nick Lenhart) who’s prone to turning the ball over, and a junior, Jerry McClanahan, who is more of a threat, with 1,000 yards passing on the season, and a 3:1 TD-to-INT ratio. If first-year head coach Steve Hagerty leans hard on McClanahan, he might have a chance of scoring some. The Lancers’ rushing attack hasn’t been impressive, with no back averaging more than five yards per carry. Their two main backs, Jay Anderson and DeShawn Gaisie, are definitely more work-horse, loosen things up runners than they are break-a-game-open runners. Given that Poly has tended to halve their opponents’ rushing average, they could very well be lucky to get two yards a carry.
On defense the Lancers are a little more imposing, with Pac-10 bound linebackers Brent Seals and Isaiah Bowens, but they’ve allowed big games to O. Lu and Notre Dame (Sherman Oaks), and Poly can hang with both of those teams offensively, especially…
Because Morgan Fennell has quietly had an amazing second half of the season. Starting five weeks ago, while everyone was still writing “Jackrabbits Offense Is Too One-Dimensional” articles, Fennell began an unsung run that should have playoff opponents worried. Over the second half of the season, Fennell is 30/51 for 618 yards, ten TDs and no picks. That’s a QB rating of over 141. Considering that he’s backed up by Daveon Barner and Melvin Richardson, who are 58 and 8 yards, respectively, from hitting 1,000 yards on the season, the Jackrabbits are starting to look as threatening and complete on offense as they are on defense.
But that D is still their bread and butter—we’ve written enough about them, and the 71 points allowed speaks for itself. Notre Dame, the number two seed in the playoffs, and the bracket’s only other undefeated contender, has allowed 176 points on the season, over a hundred more than Poly. Last season two coaches told us they thought Poly’s 2007 defense was they best they’d ever seen in high school football—this season they’ve allowed 24 points less than that squad.
So, in other words, football is a game of upsets and surprises—but don’t expect one at Vet’s on Friday. It’s certainly possible that someone will upset the Jackrabbits’ run towards CIF, but it’s not very likely that it will be Bishop Amat.
Lakewood vs. Servite @ Cerritos College, 7:30pm
Ah, here’s a game we can sink our teeth into. First, there isn’t a more misleading stat-line than Lakewood’s this season. They’re technically 4-6, because of the four forfeits due to Jerry Stone’s academic ineligibility. However, on the field, they’re 8-2, and 6-0 with Stone. When Stone is playing, they’ve scored an average of 37 points a game—without him, just 23. In other words, by sitting out four weeks, Stone may have proven himself the league’s most valuable player. It’s not just the offense that struggles without the playmaker, either—the defense allows 13 points a game with Stone playing, and 20 without him. Although the leader of the team is QB Jesse Scroggins, there’s no doubt that Stone is the spark—and the Lancers are certainly happy he’ll be suiting up on Friday.
With his return, they’ll feature one of the most balanced offensive attacks in the league, with probably an even number of balls split between Scroggins and Stone. Their defense is healthy and playing at a fever-pitch over the last two weeks, smacking the Wilson Bruins as well as Compton last week. They’ll have to make sure they don’t go too hard—Lakewood has had a dangerous affinity for penalty flags, and this is going to be a tight enough game that they can’t afford it.
They will, after all, be facing a pretty impressive Servite Friars team. Servite, 7-3 on the season, gave Notre Dame (Sherman Oaks) their best shot, and only lost by a touchdown, and they sail into the playoffs on a four-game win streak. Their offense looks a lot like Poly’s—they run twice as often as they throw, but they get the most out of either play, averaging over seven yards a carry as a team, and completing over 60% of their passes. Of paramount importance will be stopping Gregory Portis, the Friars’ top back with 13 touchdowns on the season. In addition to his running prowess, he’s one of the team’s top receivers as well, so the Red Swarm will need to keep plenty of eyes on him. Junior QB Cody Fajardo will run when he needs to—he averages almost forty yards a game rushing, in addition to the 140 yards passing he puts up. Coming out of the Trinity League, you can’t say Fajardo hasn’t been hit as hard as Lakewood will hit him, but few teams are as relentless as the Lancers in pursuing the QB—at least, when Jerry Stone is playing on the other side of the ball.
If the Lancers want to win, they’ll need to put a complete game together, harassing Fajardo and containing Portis on defense, and giving Stone opportunities to make plays, using Scroggins to stretch the field, and protecting the ball on offense. The key for Lakewood, other than Stone, will be penalties—if they don’t shoot themselves in the foot, they have a good shot to pull a minor upset here and run on to the second round. One thing is certain—with Stone back the last two weeks, this team is volcano-level hot, and may have the most momentum headed into the postseason of anyone in the CIF bracket.