So I’ve always made predictions—wild predictions. And occasionally I get one right. I’m kinda Nostradamus in that way. But there’s a fine art to making predictions; in fact, each sport requires its own style. If sport predictions were Vegas, then baseball would be blackjack. It’s going to be a grind. It’s gonna take a while before you could possibly see your strategy truly play out. It’s basically a coin flip but if you make the right choices, if you see it out, and if you occasionally guess right you might be able to do pretty well. But really you need some luck to put you over the top (because after, all who saw the Rays coming?)
Soccer would be roulette. Sure it’s fun but let’s be honest it can sometimes be very random. A 1-0 win and a 1-0 loss are incredibly close, too close to really predict. It’s just the way it goes, sometimes you land on red, sometimes on black; it’s impossible to truly predict. Bonus points: you have less than fifty-fifty odds because sometimes when you choose red or black it lands on green, sometimes you predict a win or lose, and you draw.
But football predictions? Well they are craps. They’re showy. They’re more fun with a crowd. You can ride a hot hand for a while but once you crap out it just feels like you’re falling short every time. But ultimately you’re gonna come to a time during a run when you need to decide if you should hedge your bets and start playing it conservative, or if you should double-up and really follow your first instinct.
And so I am doubling-up on my preseason prediction that the Cowboys won’t make the playoffs. Yes, those Cowboys. Play in Dallas, won four of their first five games, they’re kinda a big deal. And yes I know it sounds crazy to say they won’t make the playoffs. Probably even crazier now than it did before the season began—but in honor of craps, I’ve got 7 reasons why…
1. They play in the toughest division in football. The Giants are undefeated, oh, and the reigning champs. The Redskins made the playoffs last year and got significantly better since then. And the Eagles have the best team they have had in the McNabb/Reid era (yes, better than the Super Bowl team.)
2. Seriously: they play in the toughest division in football. 4 of the 5 best teams in the NFL play in the NFC East (in case you’re wondering, Tennessee.) Especially considering the loss to the Redskins in Dallas two weeks ago, there is a real possibility that Dallas could end the year as the fourth best team in the NFL, and still finish fourth in the East to miss the playoffs. (For the record, teams in the East are 10-1 against non-NFC East teams.)
3. Speaking of that loss to Washington, it dropped Dallas to 3rd in the East. If the season ended today, Dallas would be in the sixth playoff spot in the NFC, all of one game above Tampa and Atlanta. But from what I hear, the Cowboys are so impressed by the heart of the Bucs and Falcons, that to congratulate them on being one game out of the playoffs Jerry Jones is gonna buy Brian Griese and Matt Ryan a pit bull. I thought that was nice of him.
4. The injury factor. Even if you don’t buy that the East is that good, even if you don’t buy that Tampa or Atlanta are a threat, you have to admit that Dallas is thin. I mean Olsen-twin thin. Can they withstand an injury to T.O.? To Jason Whiten? To Romo? Their backup QB is Brad Johnson. Brad Johnson! You probably didn’t even know he was still in the league. He is actually 40 years old. He’s older than Brett Favre. Go ahead and think about that for a second. Brad Johnson is so old he can even remember the last time the Cowboys won a playoff game.
5. The turnover factor. Bottom line: the Cowboys give the ball away but their D is terrible at taking it back. The Cowboys have 4 takeaways through 5 games- 2 of those came against Cinci who before the game were averaging 2.25 turnovers a game. Even against the Bengals, the Cowboys D was subpar. Meanwhile they have eight giveaways. That makes them the 2nd worst team in turnovers in the league (behind only Detroit.) They have lost the turnover battle in every game they’ve played this season. (By the way, anytime your only competition is Detroit it’s never a good thing. It’s never like ‘most puppies and rainbows.’ When your main competition is Detroit it’s something like most muggings, or white musicians. Again—never a good thing.)
6. The D. Yes they are 4th overall in pts scored. But they are also 16th in points allowed. Combine that with the lack of takeaways and you’ve got a shoot-out every week. (Fighting….making…another…Detroit…joke….let’s….just…move…on…)
7. The Cowboys are 4-1 and have 2 winnable games coming up (at Ari, at St L). Those should be 2 gimmes and they will be 6-1. And then: they play TB, @NYG, @Was, SF, Sea, @ Pitt, NYG, Balt, @ Phi. That is nine straight potential playoff opponents. There is no easy game in the lot. Even the Niners aren’t the Bye-week they used to be. I honestly believe they will win only 4 of those games. Will 10 wins really be enough to survive the East? Will 11?
And yes I realize I just spent my entire first column angering all the Dallas fans while making the rest of you think I’m an idiot. But last year the Cowboys threw for 300 yards in 4 of the first 5 games and then did it only 3 times more the rest of the year. So don’t throw away the receipt on that Romo jersey you just bought, ‘Boys fans. Because after Week 17 when you play the Eagles for the final playoff spot, one of us is gonna feel pretty foolish. But don’t worry: there’s always blackjack.