Part One (AFC) of our playoff preview is here, the second part is here…
NFC
1.To the New York Giants– “No one gives it to you, you have to take it” Frank Costello
The Giants had a tough stretch in weeks 8 through 13 (@ Pittsburgh, v Dallas, @ Philly, vs. Baltimore, @Arizona, @ Washington) and yet they went 6-0 and won by an avg of nearly 13 points a game. At times this team has been Dominant. But two days before that week 13 game, Plaxico Burress thought it would be a good idea to wear sweat pants to a club. Since the fallout from that began the Giants have gone 1-3 and Eli Manning has not had a single 200-yd game.
However even without a big-time receiver the Giants still have a Top 5 defense and the best running game in the league. Eli Manning has turned into the mistake-free QB that this team needs and in turn had his best season yet. So why don’t I believe they will win it all? Honestly, I don’t know. I can’t put my finger on it. Maybe I expect someone in the playoffs to shut down the run game; maybe I expect someone to force Eli into mistakes; maybe I expect someone to break their defense; maybe I just feel like their luck has run out. They have proved that last year wasn’t a fluke, but I just don’t see this team winning it all again…or maybe the thought of sticking it to Jeremy Shockey again will motivate them to go all the way.
2. To the Carolina Panthers– “You have an immaculate record. Some people don’t trust a guy with an immaculate record. I do. I have an immaculate record.” Capt Ellerby
There is only one team in the NFL that is undefeated at home this year (only one!), the Carolina Panthers. They are going to be hosting at least one playoff game; and if somehow the Giants get knocked out then the Panthers get the Conference Championship at home too. But that loss to New York might mean Carolina will have to win on the road if they want to make it to the Super Bowl.
And at home I like the Panthers, a lot. But on the road? I don’t know; I just don’t trust them. They have a good offense- 10th in yards, 7th in points, 3rd-best running the ball. And they don’t make many mistakes- 3rd best in the NFC in turnover margin. But their defense leaves something to be desired- 18th in yards allowed, 12th in points allowed, 20th against the rush. They just don’t have a playmaker on D that can win them a game.
The Panthers beat the Chargers in San Diego in Week 1 on a touchdown with no time left; the Chargers radio guys believe that the way this year has gone it would only make sense if the Super Bowl came down to Chargers/Panthers and a last-second play. I think they’re right. And part of me is really pulling for the Panthers to make it to the Super Bowl, of course that might just be because every time they make it Janet Jackson shows her boob. *fingers crossed*
3. To the Minnesota Vikings– “I base most of what I do on the idea that you’re pretty good at what you do.” Billy Costigan
What if the Vikings had Kerry Collins? Or Jeff Garcia? Or heck even Trent Dilfer? If the Vikings decided to go with the Ravens blueprint, and got a no-turnover QB and based everything on their ability to run and to stop the run they would be in a much better position. The Vikings were the best run defense in the league (by a lot.) They were the fifth best rushing team (all 5 made the playoffs.) They got to play the Lions. Twice. There is only one reason they struggled: turnovers.
They were 29th in the league in turnovers, their turnover margin was a minus 6, that is the worst of the playoff teams. The Miami Dolphins were a +17; heck even the Raiders were a +1. But they have Adrian Peterson so that cures all right? Except that AP is Terrell Owens without the drama, by that I mean he is a game-changing talent who occasionally just gets a case of the dropsies. They are a Braylon Edwards trade away from having the worst ball carrying offense in history. Even Gus Ferotte threw 15 interceptions. If this team went after Chad Pennington this past offseason they could be a Super Bowl favorite right now. Instead they are probably going to lose in the first round because they don’t have an answer for the Philly’s offense, and because the Eagles are good at generating- you guessed it- turnovers.
4. To the Arizona Cardinals–
Queenan: “Do you know what we do here?”
Billy Costigan: “Yes, sir. I have an idea-“
Sean Dignam: “-Whoa. Let’s say you have no idea and leave it at that. No idea. Zip. None.”
Welcome to the playoffs Arizona. I feel like we should get you a tour-guide to show you around a little bit. I mean, don’t get too comfy- you won’t be here long- but the Cardinals haven’t won their division since they were in St Louis so enjoy it while you can.
The Arizona Cardinals are the most one-dimensional team in the playoffs. They don’t run the ball, they don’t have any defense to speak of but that offense is dangerous. I am secret hoping for a San Diego/Arizona just to see the first 200 point game in Super Bowl history. Arizona is Top 2 in Passing, Top 4 in scoring, 28th in defense and dead-last in rushing.
I feel like the Cardinals are freshmen on a college campus and we need to get a senior to do orientation for them. I wonder if the Cowboys are available…
5. To the Atlanta Falcons– “Maybe it would have done you some good to have some *questions* from time to time, you know? Am I an a-hole? Are my kids a mess?” Billy Costigan
This is no longer John Madden’s NFL. A team of misfits and thugs, like 70s/80s Raiders, does not cut it anymore. This is a lesson most owners have learned (except for Jerry Jones and of course Al Davis.) After Atlanta went into the tank last season they went and got a GM nobody’s heard of, a coach nobody had heard of, they got the backup running back from the Chargers and a rookie QB. But the best thing they did? Cut all of the bad-character guys. Deangelo Hall, Alge Crumpler, and a handful of others were shown the door in the offseason and suddenly this team is not only fun to cheer for, but actually quite good.
That said, rookie quarterbacks are not supposed to be poised. Backup running backs aren’t supposed to be able to come in and do this. Defenses that are 24th in yards allowed aren’t supposed to be 11th in points allowed. Offensive lines that were 25th in sacks allowed last year aren’t supposed to move up to 5th best in sacks allowed this year. Bottom line: this team has over-performed expectations and their own statistics.
They will probably take a step backwards next year as they regress to the mean but this year they took a giant leap forward and it all began when they got rid of the guys that didn’t want to be there. And they have to be considered heavy favorites over the Cardinals.
6. To The Philadelphia Eagles– “I’m the guy who does his job. You must be the other guy.” Sean Dignam
Coming into the Week 17 there were 4 teams alive for the final wild card spot. Of those four teams, the Eagles were the longest shot- they not only needed to beat the Cowboys but they needed everybody else to lose. Well all of those teams lost their final game, and the Eagles got the job done.
And now this team is dangerous. Going into Minnesota is a great matchup for them, and then they would go to New York (whom they beat at the Meadowlands just a few weeks ago.) They also beat the Falcons, Cardinals, and Steelers; this team is much better than the one that couldn’t beat the Bengals. In fact since getting pulled from that Baltimore game, Donovan McNabb has 9 TDs, 1 int, and 4 games with a QB rating over 90 while the Eagles have gone 4-1. Brian Westbrook is back and DeSean Jackson gives them another playmaker on offense. Their D is always dangerous and is Top 3 in yards-allowed and sacks. This team has the potential to beat the Vikings, Giants, Panthers and make it to the Super Bowl but they also have the potential to get into a 2-minute drill and completely screw it up.
If last year (or watching The Departed) has taught us anything: it’s that anybody that has a sense of entitlement will not make it to the end. And it is with that in mind that I fully expect an Eagles/Ravens Super Bowl.