If you want to know what’s going to happen in the NFL playoffs watch the movie “The Departed”. The favorites are never going to make it to the end. People will drop like flies- leaving only one standing- and that one team is someone you completely forgot about ‘til they come out of nowhere to survive longest.
In honor of that, I’m going to use quotes from “The Departed” to describe this year’s NFL playoff teams.
This is Part 1 (the AFC) and Part 2 (the NFC) will run tomorrow.
AFC
1. To the Tennessee Titans–
Madolyn: Why is the last patient of the day always the hardest?
Billy Costigan: Because you’re tired and you don’t give a s***. It’s not super-natural.
In the last 15 years, only 3 teams that lost their Week 17 game went on to win the Super Bowl (’94 Niners, ’99 Rams, ’07 Giants.) Momentum is a very real thing and not coming to play in Week 17 is a bad sign. The Titans acted like the Colts game didn’t matter, and now they will have to spend two weeks thinking about it. But it’s ok because Jeff Fisher can now spend the bye week filming his “Just For Men” commercial. Seriously, Jeff, the gray goatee is weird; dye it black, dye it maroon and gold, I don’t care. Just get rid of the gray.
Getting Albert Haynesworth and Kyle Van Den Bosch back for the playoffs will make a big difference, but this team has some major weaknesses. Their run game drives the offense but it can get shut down, which in turn, shuts down the entire offense. When their leading rusher had less than 65 yards they averaged 16 pts a game. When their leading rusher had more than 65 yards they scored 29 a game.
Defense and running the ball can definitely take a team far, particularly when they have home field throughout; but of their three possible opponents- both the Ravens and Chargers provide match-up problems for the Titans and now the Colts will have confidence and experience.
2. To the Pittsburgh Steelers– “One of us had to die. With me, it tends to be the other guy.” Frank Costello
This has to be considered the luckiest team in the NFL. They were 6-2 in close games including 5 wins in the final 2 minutes of regulation or OT. But then again, it might be more than luck. Consistently pulling out tough games could be attributed to being a veteran team with good coaching. For my money Troy Polamalu should be an MVP-candidate. He is the most important player on the league’s number one D (both in yards and points allowed.) In fact this defense has to scare everybody.
They seem to have a major problem protecting Big Ben. Roethlisberger must have insulted his o-line’s mother or slept with their wives because there is no reason the biggest QB in the league gets sacked 46 times in a season.
I think the Steelers would rather face Miami than the winner of Colts/Chargers, but there’s no team that they can’t beat. That said, they come into the playoffs with two big questions marks: Big Ben’s health and the fact that they had more turnovers than any other AFC playoff team.
3. To the Miami Dolphins–
Frank Costello: You do well in school?
Young Colin: Yeah
Frank Costello: Good. So did I. They call that a paradox.
A few weeks ago I wrote my “Why You’re Not a Playoff Team” column and I was sure the Dolphins wouldn’t make it to the postseason. However, I could not think of a single reason they were not a playoff-caliber team. They run the ball well (with two strong backs), their QB can make important throws but rarely makes mistakes, they are #1 in the league in Turnover margin, and they’re a Top-10 defense (in points-allowed.) This team is well-rounded and had a very good regular season. But there’s just one problem…they are not very good.
This team is a product of a very weak schedule. They only played 3 playoff teams (none since week 7.) The only good team they played in the 2nd half of the year (the Patriots) beat them by 20. They now have home-field advantage against a rookie QB in the playoffs, so this Dolphins team should be a shoe-in. Instead, I don’t know how they beat the Ravens. The one-year turnaround has been quite impressive, but Miami needs to get some playmakers on both sides of the ball if they’re going to become an elite team.
4. To the San Diego Chargers– “I’ve got a question- how f***’d up are you?” Sean Dignam
The Chargers didn’t beat a single playoff team this year. And yet…they have to be scary to every other AFC team. But their defense is terrible. They can’t get any pressure, they haven’t generated turnovers, and they allow a ton of yards. This team went 2-7 in close games (and those 2 wins were over the Chiefs); after 2 seasons with him I am now fully confident that Norv Turner is a real-life Forrest Gump. He just kind of stands there and amazing things happen around him. And yet, because of everything that happened to get them in the playoffs, this team has a “Team of Destiny” belief in themselves.
Somebody had a sign at Sunday’s Chargers/Broncos game that just said “Redemption.” Redemption for the lost against Denver in week 2. Redemption for the lost at home to the Colts. Redemption for LT for the boos. Redemption for Norv for the “Marty” chants. This team isn’t perfect, but they are redeeming themselves. But…which team will show up this Saturday?
5. To the Indianapolis Colts– “Lot of people had to die for me to be me.” Frank Costello
Without a doubt this Colts team is the hottest in the NFL right now. For nine weeks they have eliminated everyone in their path to turn their 3-4 start into a 12-4 record. Somehow it’s like this team got younger and healthier throughout this season, like there’s a picture of Peyton Manning aging in a closet somewhere. The streak started with a week 9 Sunday night win over the Patriots but it includes a 4-point road win over the Steelers and a 3-pt road win over the Chargers; in fact they went 5-1 against playoff teams. This team is good: they are a Top-10 defense (in points allowed), they don’t turn the ball over, and Peyton Manning gives them the chance to score at anytime (particularly in the final 2 minutes of a half.) 2006 gives them experience and 2007 gives them motivation. They can go very deep into the playoffs…but they have to get through the Chargers first.
Can they beat the Chargers in San Diego for the 2nd time this year? Can they avenge last year’s postseason loss to San Diego? Will their run defense (24th in the league) be their Achilles heal? I have no doubt this Saturday’s game will be epic, and I believe that the winner of this game could very well go to the Super Bowl.
6. To the Baltimore Ravens– “Who thinks they can do what you do better than you?” Billy Costigan
A strong run game, a QB that doesn’t turn the ball over, and a defense that is scary-good. Am I crazy, or does that sound like Tennessee, Pittsburgh, New York Giants, Tampa Bay, Chicago, and Baltimore? And that blueprint was drawn up perfectly by the 2000 Ravens. A Trent Dilfer-led Super Bowl victory gave everyone else hope that they could win it all without a top-notch quarterback. The Buccaneers did it two years later and the Steelers did it a few years after that. This kind of team can win in the playoffs. And Baltimore is hoping the formula can still work for them.
Their playmakers are on the defensive side of the ball, in fact if Troy Polamalu is an MVP-candidate then Ed Reed should be the MVP (9 ints, 3 TDs.) Their defense is just as good as Tennessee or Pittsburgh, which is to say it is the best in the league. This team matches up well with Miami, they could then beat Tennessee (who they lost to be 3 pts in week 5), they could then beat Pittsburgh (who they lost to be 3 and 4 pts), and suddenly they are in the Super Bowl. And if you don’t believe that’s possible, I only need remind you that Pittsburgh in 2005 was a 6th seed that was lead by a big D and a young QB. These Ravens are 15 to 1 in Vegas to win the Super Bowl; right now I wouldn’t bet against them.
I’ll be back tomorrow with Part 2 (the NFC)