AFC (Ranked in order of probability of making the playoffs not where they would make it)

1. Tennessee Titans– remaining schedule: @ Houston, vs. Pittsburgh, @ Indianapolis

They’ve clinched the AFC South and a first-round bye.  But that Pittsburgh game could decide home field throughout playoffs

2. Pittsburgh Steelers-: @Baltimore, @Tennessee, vs. Cleveland

They’ve practically clinched playoff spot, but the next 2 weeks aren’t kind.  The Baltimore game should determine who wins the North and the Tennessee game then decides home-field throughout.  Followed by a bye week against Cleveland.

3. Denver Broncos-: @Carolina, vs. Buffalo, @ San Diego

As much as it pains me to say, this is practically guaranteed.  They have a 3-game lead with 3 games to go.  Week 15 at Carolina (while the Chargers go to KC) might delay the inevitable for another week.  But Week 16 hosting Buffalo, while the Chargers go to Tampa Bay, should definitely clinch it.  Otherwise it’s Week 17 at San Diego for all the marbles.

4. Indianapolis Colts-: vs. Detroit, @ Jacksonville, vs. Tennessee

They are in, but wins over Detroit and Jacksonville will make it official, and they will probably go to Denver in round 1.  (There’s an outside chance they go to New England on wild-card weekend.  Wow.)

5. Baltimore Ravens-: vs. Pittsburgh, @ Dallas, vs. Jacksonville

The schedulers didn’t do them any favors.  The Jaguars game is the only gimme; but with that easy game, the one-game lead they already have, and their strong conference record, they are pretty close to locking up the 6^th seed and could jump over Pittsburgh to get the AFC North if they can pull it off this weekend.

6. New York Jets-: vs. Buffalo, @ Seattle, vs. Miami

Their fate is still in their hands, if they win all three (not easy I know, especially on the road against Seattle) they will win the East no matter what the Pats do. 

7. Miami Dolphins-: vs. San Francisco, @ Kansas City, @ NYJ

Technically they too control their own fate.  If they win all three of their games, they will win the East.  But not one of those games are a gimme.  They could just as easily lose all 3 of those as they could win the East.

8. New England Patriots-: @ Oakland, vs. Arizona, @ Buffalo

Their conference record hurts them in a tie-breaker so they have the least control over their fate.  They could win all 3 and still not make it in.  Of course, if the Dolphins lose to the Niners but beat the Jets, the Pats can make it.  But if they lose any of these games they are definitely out.

9. San Diego Chargers-: @Kansas City, @ Tampa Bay, vs. Denver

See: Denver Broncos.  The Chargers are technically alive but to get in they have to be lucky and consistent.  This year they have been neither.

NFC (Again, ranked in order of probability of making the playoffs not where they would make it)

1. New York Giants– remaining schedule: @ Dallas, vs. Carolina, @ Minnesota

They have won the East and a first-round bye.  But they have only a one-game lead for home field, and that Panthers game should decide who gets it.

2. Arizona Cardinals– vs. Minnesota, @ New England, vs. Seattle

They have won the West and will host a playoff game but there is no way this team climbs into the Top 2 seeds.

3. Carolina Panthers– vs. Denver, @ NYG, @ New Orleans

They are 10-3, only 1 game out of the top spot in the NFC and they still haven’t clinched a thing yet.  With their schedule there is still a chance they don’t make the playoffs; of course there’s also a chance they have home-field throughout.  Welcome to 2008.

4. Tampa Bay Buccaneers– @ Atlanta, vs. San Diego, vs. Oakland

They have a one-game lead, a strong conference record, and a Week 17 game against the Raiders.  That should be enough to get them in the playoffs.  But it might not be.  These next 2 weeks are tough; they have to win at least one of those to clinch their spot in.  Or of course they could win all 3, win the South, and be the 2 seed.  Seriously, what a crazy year.

5. Minnesota Vikings– @ Arizona, vs. Atlanta, vs. NYG

They have a one-game lead in the North, but they might be without Frerotte and they have a tough schedule.  They could lose all three of those.  But if they win any two they clinch the North.

6. Chicago Bears– vs. New Orleans, vs. Green Bay, @ Houston

If they Vikings do lose all three, the Bears can win the North. But with this schedule, they have no guarantees either.  If the Vikings win just one of their last three games, the Bears need to win all three of theirs to win the division.

7. Green Bay Packers– @ Jacksonville, @ Chicago, vs. Detroit

They are the only North team to have a few easy games left.  If they Vikings do lose all 3, and the Bears lose to the Saints; the Green Bay/Chicago Week 16 game could be for the NFC North.  Of course the Packers could beat the Jags, beat the Bears, and then lose to the Lions in Week 17, which would make the 8-8 Vikings NFC North champs again.  Crazy.

8. Atlanta Falcons– vs. Tampa Bay, @ Minnesota, vs. Rams

They do control their own fate.  If they win all 3 of those, they lock up the final spot.  But that might be asking a lot.  If they beat Tampa or the Vikings, then a win over the Rams should still clinch the final spot.

9. Philadelphia Eagles– vs. Cleveland, @ Washington, vs. Dallas

I say 10 wins for the Falcons should clinch, because if the Eagles win their final 3 games, they too will have 10 wins but will have 1 fewer loss (damn you tie games!)  I don’t think they will beat both Washington and Dallas, but I do think they will beat the Browns and one of the other games.  Which means they would be 9-5-1 and would force someone to get 10 wins to lock up the final spot.

10. Dallas Cowboys– vs. NYG, vs. Baltimore, @ Philadelphia

We all know where I stand.  They won’t make it.  But if they beat the Giants, the Ravens, and the Eagles AND the Falcons lose at least one game, then the Cowboys would be in.  But I see them losing two, maybe all three, of those.

11. Washington Redskins– @ Cincinnati, vs. Philadelphia, @ San Francisco

They are currently the leader for the “Best Team to Finish Last in Their Division” Award.  I knew one team would get the shaft from the NFC East being too deep and right now it’s the Skins.  The Cincinnati game is an easy one, but the Eagles and traveling to the Niners are tough games.  They have to win all 3 and have Dallas and Atlanta lose one game for them to get in.

12. New Orleans Saints– @ Chicago, @ Detroit, vs. Carolina

Their conference record makes them the longest shot, as does their schedule.  But if they win all three of those, and if the Falcons, Cowboys, Eagles, Redskins, and Vikings all lose at least 1 game then the Saints could make it. 

And just exactly how do 21 teams still have a shot at the playoffs?  Well the 11 teams that are officially eliminated are a combined 35-107-1.  These final 3 weeks are going to be a really enjoyable race…unless you’re a Lions fan.