Dear Coach,
Let me get right to it: you are a coward. No offense or anything, I just mean you are scared. And it’s not just you, it’s most coaches. I know that it’s because if you play it safe, you won’t be the story, while if you take a chance, you’re opening yourself up to criticism from people like me. But I think you’re wrong for being such a wuss.
Herm Edwards had a vastly inferior team—with only 1 win since Week 8 of last year—and saw a victory only 2 yards away: all he had was the crappy Chargers D between him and a chance to double his win total. So he went for 2 and it didn’t work out. And he was criticized. Similarly, in a Week 2 game that is infamous because Ed Hoculi blows prematurely, Mike Shanahan made the same call, only his team pulled it off.
Lost in the Hoculi controversywas the fact that Mike Shanahan knew exactly what call to make: when his team was down by 7 with almost no time left, he knew that when they scored the touchdown, they needed to go for two. Maybe he feared a Hoculi make-up call. Maybe he knew that the Chargers D was visibly shaken by the horrible call and didn’t have their heads on straight. Maybe he knew that Chargers coach Norv Turner wouldn’t call a timeout to give his D a breather and get back in the game. But mostly he knew that his team had a better chance to get 2 yards against a tired defense than they did to win the toss and march 50+ yards down the field for a winning score in OT. And it is that call (and his assertion that the officiating was fair) that makes Mike Shanahan kinda an a-hole—but definitely not a wuss.
The reason I point out Herm’s and Shanahan’s calls is because they are the only NFL head coaches this year to make that call. There were only 3 other times when a team even had that opportunity. Week 3: Tampa Bay scores with 7 seconds left, takes the tie, wins the coin toss and eventually wins in OT. The next week Baltimore comes back against Pittsburgh with only a few minutes left, they of course take the tie, and they lose in OT. And of course in Week 11, even the Patriots chickened out, took the PAT against the Jets, and lost in OT. In other words, going for 2 is 1-1 while settling for OT is 1-2 so far this season in the NFL.
And Coach, the NFL is the worst offender because OT in the NFL could end with one team never even touching the ball; even in the NCCA, coaches need to realize that settling for OT doesn’t increase your odds of winning. In Week 2, Central Florida was down two touchdowns to #17 South Florida. UCF scored 2 TDs, the 2nd one with less than 2 minutes to go. South Florida had outgained them 500 yards to 220, UCF was out-gunned. But if they could pick up just 2 yards (2 freaking yards Coach!), with 1:47 to go, they go up 25-24. Instead they settle for a tie, and lose in OT. In Week 7, Nebraska does everything they can to upset then #7 Texas Tech. They outgain them. They dominate time of possession. They do everything right except try to win; because with 29 seconds left, they kicked an extra point to send it to OT. They lost.
We both know there are other examples. UNLV in Week 3, NC State in Week 4, and Virgina in week 8, when an underdog against a ranked opponent took the tie to send it to OT and then won in OT. But the fact remains—how often do you believe your team can pick up 2 yards when they really have to? Versus how often can your team stop the opponent from scoring from 25 yards away, and then go and score themselves. Clearly winning in OT is tougher than getting 2 yards, right?
Most coaches are scared of going for 2, even when it’s nothing but upside. In Week 6 the Dolphins, with less than 2 minutes to go, scored a touchdown to go up by 4. Being up by 4 or 5 is not much of a difference, but being up by 6? That’s a bigger deal. So did the Dolphins go for 2? No of course not. They kicked a meaningless extra point to go up by 5, so that when the Texans marched down the field and scored with almost no time left they didn’t need to worry about the extra point.
Other people will say: It doesn’t matter because the extra point is automatic. But Coach you know that’s not true. And that’s what this whole discussion hinges on, too. Down by 1, with little or no time remaining, a PAT is not guaranteed.
In fact in Week 2 #15 BYU was at Washington. The Huskies, down by 7, got the ball back with 3:31 left in the game. They orchestrate a perfect 17-play, 76-yard drive for a touchdown with only 2 seconds left. So at home, as an underdog, with momentum, do they go for the win? Of course not. They attempt to kick the point-after, it’s blocked, and Washington loses. Four weeks later, also at home, Florida (who is favored over Mississippi State) scores with 3:28 left. Again, they wuss out and settle for the tie. They assumed that the PAT is automatic. It wasn’t. The blocked point-after gave Florida their only loss of the year so far.
Through the first 10 weeks of this NFL season, there were 38 two-point attempts, and there was a 42% success rate. But the PAT percentage for the first 10 weeks, after 570 attempts, was 85%. Coach, are you impressed by the research? I don’t even have a staff, I do all my own legwork. But getting back to my point about you being a pansy—100 PATs would net you 85 points, while 100 2-pt attempts would net you 84 points. That’s what you’re so scared of—the risk that every one hundred touchdowns you might lose 1 point? That doesn’t even tell the whole story: of the 25 OT games in the last 2 years, 64% of the time the team that won the toss has won the game. More than two-thirds of those wins came on the first possession of overtime. In other words, if you settle for a tie and let it go to OT, there is a very good chance your offense will never even touch the ball. Coach, some have said that trying for the 2-pts and missing it is a cruel way to lose, but never even touching the ball in OT? How’s that for cruel!
Coaches Gruden, Harbaugh, and Belichick never got called out for settling for the tie but Herm Edwards has been roundly criticized for going for 2 and not getting it. Shanahan was thoroughly praised—because it worked. But when I think about what I expect from a head coach, I begin to realize something. Mike Shanahan will make just as many mistakes as any other coach. And he will probably make just as many calls that were great but that didn’t execute well. But at the end of a game, I’d want my team’s win based on getting 2 yards when we need it rather than based on winning a coin flip. To put it another way Coach, I’d rather have my head coach be an a-hole than a wuss.
Thanks, and good luck out there Coach.