AFC (Ranked in order of probability of making the playoffs not where they would make it if the season ended today)
1. Tennessee Titans– remaining schedule: vs. Pittsburgh, @ Indianapolis
The loss to Houston set up a huge show-down this weekend with the Steelers to determine the #1 seed in the AFC. The winner not only gets home-field throughout the playoffs, but more they get confidence—if the Titans can’t beat Pittsburgh at home this Sunday how are they going to feel if they have to travel to Pittsburgh for an AFC Championship game?
2. Pittsburgh Steelers– @Tennessee, vs. Cleveland
The “win” over Baltimore gives them the North and at least the #2 seed. Another win on the road this weekend would mean they would not have to leave Pittsburgh unless it was for the Super Bowl.
3. Indianapolis Colts– @ Jacksonville, vs. Tennessee
Indianapolis has just about clinched the wild card spot and therefore has jumped over Denver in my rankings. A win over Jacksonville tonight makes it official, and practically guarantees them a trip to the AFC West winner on wild-card weekend.
4. Denver Broncos– vs. Buffalo, @ San Diego
Just as I expected, they didn’t clinch last week, but this week is much easier for them. A win over Buffalo OR a San Diego loss at Tampa Bay gives Denver the AFC West (and the Colts in the first round of the playoffs). But IF they somehow lose, and IF San Diego somehow wins, then the week 17 Chargers/Broncos game just got a lot more interesting.
5. New York Jets- @ Seattle, vs. Miami
Barely being able to beat the Bills at home doesn’t bode well for their chances in Seattle; but if the Jets win their final 2, they win the AFC East.
6. Miami Dolphins- @ Kansas City, @ NYJ
The Dolphins too still control their own fate. If they beat KC and the Jets beat the Seahawks, then the Week 17 Jets/Fins game probably gets flexed to Sunday Night on NBC and determines the East winner and the loser has almost no shot at a playoff berth.
7. Baltimore Ravens– @ Dallas, vs. Jacksonville
The heartbreaking loss to the Steelers actually puts Baltimore in danger of missing the playoffs. But their conference record keeps them in control of their destiny—2 wins and they are in.
8. New England Patriots- vs. Arizona, @ Buffalo
The Pats could win both remaining games (giving them 11 wins) and still not make it into the playoffs. But their schedule (Arizona phoning it in, and Buffalo collapsing) has to give them hope. If both the Jets and Dolphins each lose one game then 2 wins gives the Pats the East; OR if Baltimore loses one game then 2 Patriot wins would give them the final wild card spot—which coincidentally would probably mean a trip to the AFC East winner on wild-card weekend.
9. San Diego Chargers– @ Tampa Bay, vs. Denver
That ridiculous game in Kansas City kept them alive, barely. But they need to win at Tampa and have Denver blow the home game against Buffalo just to have the week 17 matchup against Denver mean anything.
NFC (Again, ranked in order of probability of making the playoffs not where they would make it)
1. New York Giants– vs. Carolina, @ Minnesota
The NFL schedulers deserve a gold star; in both the AFC and NFC the #1 seed is decided in a head-to-head matchup this weekend.
2. Arizona Cardinals– @ New England, vs. Seattle
We need something worse than “phoning it in” for Arizona; in fact, the Cardinals are currently texting it in. I’d be only mildly surprised if they decided not to go to New England, just forfeited the game, and claimed they thought it was their bye week. They have clinched the 4th seed, and would need to win both games and have the Vikings lose both games just to move into the 3rd spot.
3. Carolina Panthers– @ NYG, @ New Orleans
The Panthers are playing for the 1 seed this weekend, but they still haven’t clinched a playoff-berth yet. (God Bless 16-game seasons.) The #1 seed for Carolina is huge. The 4 NFC South teams (of which there will probably be three in the playoffs) are a combined 27-2 at home this year.
4. Minnesota Vikings- vs. Atlanta, vs. NYG
The Vikings have a one-game lead, the tie-breaker, and two home games left; but these are two tough games. If this were baseball we would refer to the magic number for the Vikings being 1: All they need is one win or one Chicago loss to win the NFC North.
The 2 Wild-Card Spots
5a. Tampa Bay Buccaneers– vs. San Diego, vs. Oakland
5b. Atlanta Falcons– @ Minnesota, vs. Rams
5c. Dallas Cowboys– vs. Baltimore, @ Philadelphia
This is complicated so bear with me…
Tampa has 8 wins in their conference, Dallas has 7, and Atlanta has 6. If we get into a scenario where any of these teams start losing games then Tampa has the advantage with their conference schedule already over. But with these 3 teams fighting for two spots, it’s safe to assume at least two of them will win out. In which case, Dallas gets the tie-breaker over Tampa (because of their win over the Bucs in October).
Simple enough, but this is where you get your money’s worth from me:
If all 3 of them tie, then the 2nd place finishers in their division get in. So Dallas gets in, but Tampa and Atlanta will be fighting for 2nd in the South, which will have to go all the way down to the Strength of Victory (the wins of the teams that you beat) for the 6th seed. Which goes to Tampa. Even if the teams Atlanta beats win a few more games and catch up there (they can only catch up they can’t overtake Tampa), the next tie-breaker is strength of schedule (bringing in the teams that you lost to) and Tampa has that one locked up too.
Basically Tampa Bay and Dallas win out, they’re in. If one of them lose, and Atlanta wins out they’re in. If two of them lose, then let’s talk about Philly…
8. Philadelphia Eagles– @ Washington, vs. Dallas
I think the tie game actually makes this less messy because if the Eagles had beaten the Bengals, like they were supposed to, we’d have four 9-5 teams right now. Instead Philly is half a game back. If they win both of their games (which eliminates Dallas) then they need the Bucs or Falcons to drop one of their games. One more loss though and the Eagles are basically done.
9. Chicago Bears– vs. Green Bay, @ Houston
As mentioned in the Vikings, the North is a long shot for the Bears. Just tying the Vikings doesn’t do it for them.
Their wild-card chances aren’t much better. They are a game behind Dallas, Tampa, and Atlanta (and half a game behind Philly), and they lost their games against Philly, Tampa and Atlanta and their conference record and strength of victory are weak. Bottom line for them to have any chance at any playoff spot they have to win both of these games AND have Minnesota, or Dallas, or Tampa Bay, or Atlanta lose both of their games.
Green Bay Packers– officially eliminated
Washington Redskins– officially eliminated
New Orleans Saints– officially eliminated
If I went to Vegas before the season and asked for odds that the Cowboys, Packers, Patriots, Jags, AND Chargers all wouldn’t make the playoffs, what would they tell me? 100-to-1? 1000-to-1? We could actually be facing a playoffs in which five of the top preseason Super Bowl favorites didn’t even survive the regular season. Meanwhile the Falcons and Dolphins were both the longest shots (each at 150-1) before the season.
It feels like every year we say ‘Wow, what a crazy season,’ but right now we are facing a situation in which the absolutely least likely Super Bowl could happen (Falcons/Dolphins). We could literally see a Super Bowl matchup that Vegas deemed to be one in 20,000. Now that is a crazy season.