Looking ahead to Saturday night’s upcoming battle between the Long Beach State 49ers (10-7, 5-0) and the UC Riverside Highlanders (10-7, 2-3), we call upon a new friend to help with the pregame analysis.  The experts at the sports blog Pub Wisdom joined us for an e-mail conversation about the two Big West squads, and provided reason to fear the Highlander.  In the process, a whole lot of basketball knowledge exploded all over the internets.  Here it is…

RZ:  First off, thanks for joining our little experiment.  How would you characterize this Highlander team so far, and what are their greatest strengths?

PW: This year’s UCR team has discovered a new-found closeability — in many cases this season, they’ve been able to close the deal at the end of close games, something it couldn’t quite manage last season. There is MUCH room for improvement, natch, but teams are taking UCR a little more seriously this season. However, the improvement started showing last season. Instead of getting walked over, they were much more competitive, but would end up losing in the end. This season, they are winning some of those games.
 
I’m guessing UCR coach Jim Wooldridge softened up the Highlanders’ non-conference schedule to give the boys a chance to notch some W’s and gain some confidence. It was so soft, that I was pessimistic going into the Big West schedule, and must admit I was very surprised to see them open up with two wins: a straight blow-out of Cal Poly and a squeaker against UCSB.
 
They’ve since fallen back to earth, but are due for another burst of momentum. Objectively, I’m not expecting that burst to come Saturday against LBSU. The 49ers have emerged (from nowhere, really) as the clear class of the conference. I’m amazed at how tuff they played some perennial powerhouses (Wisconsin and Temple come to mind). That said, I think UC Riverside will give LBSU a good game, and if we can turn on some scoring it’s quite possible the Highlanders could upset. UCR would need USC-transfer Kyle Austin to go off big, and get solid contributions from Aaron Scott, Javon Borum, Jalonni Diggs and others. It’s very possible, but not probable.
 
The team’s greatest strengths? Tuff team defense and poise down the stretch in close games.
 
Here’s a couple questions for you…
 
What’s your take on the 49ers’ success this season. I am blown away. What gives?
 
Second, what’s LBSU’s biggest vulnerabilties? I won’t lie, I’m hoping Wooldridge reads this and can exploit it ; ) So don’t hold back — what should UCR do to have the best shot on Saturday?

RZ: Well, as far as the 49ers’ early conference success, I’d point to three main factors: depth, a tough preconference schedule, and quality shooting.  The addition of four talented freshmen seemed like it would lead to a painful growing experience, but all four have proven to be more game-ready than anyone expected. Essentially, Long Beach added four players who were able to contribute right away, and that has drastically improved the 49ers’ depth.  At any point in the game, coach Dan Monson can point to his bench and bring in a competent player – there are so many effective combinations that he still hasn’t settled on a starting five.

Second, a challenging preseason schedule that included road games at BYU, Wisconsin, Syracuse and Oregon has done wonders for their confidence.  Of course, beating Temple at home was the best victory in the Big West thus far.  They were really thrown into the fire early and it’s paid off – just as it worries you that the Highlanders played a light schedule, it benefits Long Beach having played stellar competition.  And third, the 49ers are taking quality shots thanks to their athleticism and ability to create in the flow of the offense.  Long Beach’s offense allows for a lot of flexibility and creativity, and they’re not afraid to run.  Again, having six or seven competent guards allows them to get up and down the floor the entire game.  They’re very effective going to the basket, but this is a jump shooting team at its core and they embrace the three-ball.

Long Beach has been very successful by taking open shots, but this may also be the weakness that you’re looking for.  In many of their losses, the shots simply haven’t fallen.  Even in the loss at Syracuse, in which the 49ers shot dreadfully from three, few of those attempts were bad shots.  They just weren’t falling.  Other than that, post defense needs improvement, and they’re actually quite dreadful from the free-throw line.  For the Highlanders to get a victory, they’ll have to really stretch themselves athletically and have a great shooting night, because Long Beach averages more than 70 points per game while UCR hovers around 58.0.  If Austin has a big night the Highlanders will have a shot, but the 49ers are able to throw several big guards at scorers to slow them down – as they did Temple’s Dionte Christmas.  I know that UCR is notoriously stingy with their tight defense, but they’ll have to really lock down and not focus on stopping any single Long Beach player or they’ll get beat on the kick-outs.  Slowing down the 49er attack is probably their best bet.  How is UCR on the boards?  Long Beach is outrebounded from time to time and that could prove to be dangerous.

PW:  Rivi’s okay on the boards, but lacks the true post presence inside it would need to fully exploit any weakness in LBSU’s post D. As mentioned, things will have to come together for the Highlanders to hang on Saturday — execute defensively and have the shots fall — to stay competitive. While the Highlanders are averaging less than 60 points on offense, their defense is also consistently holding teams below their offensive averages as well. If it’s tight late, the 49ers’ shakiness at the line could haunt them. But, on balance, I think your characterization puts it well — it will be a stretch for UCR to win, an overachievement based on what I’ve seen so far. I know the 49ers will be keying on Austin, so I think the most realistic offensive strategy for UCR may be to have him attract defenders and look for open teammates — and hope the shots fall.

I don’t predict a UCR win, but I do think you’ll be surprised by UCR’s athleticism as well. If the ‘Niners underestimate the Highlanders mentally, it could be Montana State all over again. A guy can dream…
 
RZ:  If Austin is able to create open looks for his teammates, are they capable of hitting enough shots to carry the scoring load?  I see Austin being able to have a good game against Long Beach State if he’s feeling it, but Riverside will need points from more than him if they’re to keep pace.  I also agree that the 49ers’ free-throw woes could haunt them in close games, but I don’t see this being one of those games.  They often make up for poor charity shooting with efficient field goal shooting, and if they’re hot from beyond the arc (as they have been at home) there’s not much the defense can do.

Ouch, low blow on the Montana State reference, haha, but very astute.  That was, plain and simple, a game the 49ers should have dominated and didn’t.  It was the only clear case of immaturity from this very young team that we’ve seen all season, however.  And don’t forget that they turned around and beat Temple two nights later.  I think that after a tough preseason schedule and starting out white-hot in conference, the 49ers smell blood in the water and have their sights set on a strong finish.

I’m intrigued to see UCR and their athleticism, as you’ve pointed out.  What do you think has been their most impressive performance this season?

PW:  Okay, so you asked if Austin’s supporting cast is up to task if they get opportunities, and the answer there is an emphatic hells yeah. Balanced scoring is one of the club’s strong suits, likely helped by the fact that Austin couldn’t play for the first several games of the season and there was no “go-to” option. Different guys stepped up at different times, and 5 or 6 guys are easily capable of pouring in 10-12 points. The UCR squad was infused with several new players this season, but most are juco transfers, many of whom are from Woolridge’s former sphere of influence in the midwest — community colleges you’ve never heard of. But when you read their bios, they’ve got some game time under their belts. It’s actually an experienced squad. So, I’d say it would be a mistake to overemphasize on Austin.
 
I think their first two conference games have to be the highlight of the season thus far. The Highlanders blew Cal Poly out by 30-plus, but I would have to put the UCSB win that followed above it. It wasn’t pretty, but UCSB is in a different league than Cal Poly, and UC Riverside had to really gut that one out.

Pub Wisdom Predicts: Long Beach State 70 – UC Riverside 65

LBPOSTSports.com Predicts: A good game (we don’t make predictions, lest you suspect witchcraft when we end up being right all the time).

Thanks to Pub Wisdom for saving us from doing our own scouting.  What say you, fans?