Four years ago, war was declared on incumbent politicians in Long Beach.  Press outlets like the Press-Telegram made a point of endorsing anybody but incumbents, and upstarts like lbreport.com flexed their new influence by attacking incumbents and aiding insurgents like Rae Gabelich.  In the end, two incumbents lost their jobs (Rob Webb and Dennis Carroll), and one resigned two years later (Dan Baker).

As candidate filing opens today (and closes on January 11th), there is a different vibe in the air.  That war of 2004 is over, and incumbents are in vogue in 2008.  Of the four even City Council seats up for re-election, no clearly viable challenger has presented themselves so far.

Suja Lowenthal

In the 2nd District, Suja Lowenthal has earned admiration of her constituents, and the respect of her former detractors, many of which originally claimed she was merely riding into higher office on her politically connected last name.  If anything, she has lived up to and possibly outshined the Lowenthal legacy by focusing on what matters most to her constituents—parking, noise, and air quality.  They aren’t the most glamorous issues, but by delivering them in a big way, they are the issues that win reelection.

Since the 2nd District is a hotbed of activism, expect a handful of token opposition, but likely not enough to push Ms. Lowenthal into a runoff election.

Patrick O’Donnell

In the 4th District, Patrick O’Donnell comes head to head with the history of elections past, where the last two City Councilmembers failed to win a second term.  There were two things that doomed those previous races—an overriding controversial issue, and a personality that led to alienation from their constituents.  Councilman O’Donnell has the benefit of a jovial, down-to-earth demeanor, the lack of any local controversy, and the element that helped him get in office in 2004—organized labor.

Dee Andrews

In the 6th District, Dee Andrews will have the hardest fought and highest profile of any of the campaigns this season.  His likely challenger will be Al Austin, this past May’s 2nd place finisher in the race to replace now-Congressmember Laura Richardson.  Anyone who decides to file and take a shot at the 6th District will only play 3rd fiddle (and so on) to the intense rematch that will take place.

Andrews has won fans from the business community, and his road to victory will include gaining the endorsements and the support bases of his other past opponents.  He remained generally innocuous during that last campaign, and that should help him gain their support.

Al Austin

Coming so close to victory in May, Al Austin still has a hunger for the seat, has learned the mistakes of earlier this year, and has organized labor behind him.  The main question is whether his labor support will be as energized for Mr. Austin’s effort this time.

Rae Gabelich

A year ago, I would have pegged Rae Gabelich as the incumbent most in danger of losing the 8th District.  Many thought that her handing of the Bixby Knolls Halloween beatings was sub-par, her coveted airport issue had fizzled out, and retail was faltering along the Atlantic Corridor.

Within that year things have turned around in Gabelich’s favor.  Gabelich shepherded the Bixby Knolls area to a safe and quiet Halloween, and retail has grown along the Atlantic Corridor, including the announcement of a new upscale tenant, Marshall’s, for the long vacant Robert’s Department store location at the Bixby Knolls shopping center.

Regardless of whether said accomplishments are truly the result of the incumbents’ actions is irrelevant—it is the perception that really counts.  And the perception is the thing that is building a safe environment for incumbents.

A friend recently reminded me that democracy suffers when there isn’t adequate opposition.  The problem is that in a city like Long Beach, challengers need to have started fundraising and building a base months ago to be viable.

Are they out there?

If they are, they should let themselves be known, because every day that passes, means a stronger plank for incumbents and the status quo.